The AI Economy: Who Will Benefit from the Next Productivity Revolution?

By The Change Lab

Artificial intelligence promises to make economies richer. It can help workers process information, automate routine tasks and produce more with fewer resources. Yet the central economic question is not simply whether AI will generate growth. It is whether that growth will translate into higher living standards across society—or concentrate income and power among those already best placed to benefit. The IMF identifies both possibilities: stronger productivity and rising incomes, alongside disruption to employment and greater inequality

A transformation of work, not just a disappearance of jobs

The scale of potential change is substantial. IMF research published in 2024 estimated that almost 40% of global employment is exposed to AI, rising to around 60% in advanced economies. However, exposure does not mean that every affected job will disappear. Some workers will become more productive because AI complements their skills; others may face reduced demand because the technology can perform tasks previously carried out by humans

This distinction matters. A job is usually a collection of tasks rather than a single activity. Automating part of a role can allow a worker to focus on more valuable responsibilities, but it can also allow an employer to operate with fewer staff. The IMF’s 2026 analysis therefore emphasises adjustment: changes to tasks, skill requirements and organisational structures will shape the outcome, not technological capability alone.

The underlying issue is distribution. If AI helps workers produce more, who receives the additional income? Employees might benefit through higher wages. Consumers might benefit from cheaper goods and services. Alternatively, businesses and investors might capture much of the gain through higher profits. IMF research warns that stronger returns to capital could increase wealth inequality, while differences in workers’ ability to use AI could widen wage disparities.

A new divide between countries

AI could also deepen international inequality. Advanced economies have greater exposure to the technology, but they are generally better positioned to exploit it. Many developing economies lack the digital infrastructure and skilled workforces needed to capture comparable gains. Lower initial exposure to disruption should therefore not be mistaken for a long-term advantage.

This creates a difficult development challenge. Countries that struggle to adopt AI may avoid some immediate job displacement while missing opportunities to raise productivity. The IMF’s 2026 analysis warns that productivity gains concentrated in advanced economies could widen income gaps and redirect capital away from lower-income countries.

Policy will determine the outcome

The appropriate response is neither to resist all automation nor to assume that markets will distribute its benefits fairly. The IMF argues for policies that support the spread of AI across the economy, help workers move into new roles and protect those adversely affected. For developing economies, investment in digital infrastructure and skills is especially important.

Training is central, but it cannot carry the entire burden. Workers need opportunities to apply new skills, while those facing displacement need support during the transition. A successful policy agenda must connect technological adoption with labour-market adjustment rather than treating them as separate problems.

AI’s economic future is not predetermined. The same technology could support broadly shared prosperity or reinforce existing inequalities. Its ultimate success should be judged not only by how much output it generates, but also by how widely the gains improve people’s lives.